Neutral to Bearish Again

Exited ALL longs (ERX, TYH) at 2pm. Also exited my long futures position in ES & NQ.

Although the market did rise during the past few days it rose too hard too fast for me to continue holding comfortably. I don't think the ES range high near 928 can be taken out, and longs will see some trouble if it's not. On the other hand if it's indeed taken out with volume there's little resistance between here and 950, at which point I'll feel better shorting.

However I'm not short yet. Will wait and see if we turn south from here.

Short Term Bullish

Close post-POMO shorts and opened new longs ERX, PHM. Double POMO day this week combined with earnings releases from several major banks increased the possibility of tape painting.

Close Short Position Until EOD Thursday

Small long ERX.

In Cash

Sorry I haven't updated the blog in the last couple of weeks, well partly because there aren't many good equity trades. But one thing I must make clear:

All you girls should be in cash prior to the FOMC announcement day. It's not worth chasing a few cents of extra profits by risking giving back what you already have. A pure probability decision you see.

That said I do think the next few days' actions will be bullish given the important half year window dressing period. That will turn into a good shorting opportunity unless it's on high volume, which I doubt. I'm obviously still trading futures since they are mostly automated, but my equities account is in all cash now.

A few equity trades in the past couple weeks (I'll update price levels later):

Short NOC, IEO, RTN, CHS, DE, HEW. HEW turned out a loser which was subsequently cut out short.

Stocks Trading Next Week

Monday - Close all short positions. We might have a little manipulation going on! Ha. Well in case like that it's better to reduce exposure. Out of all futures position on Friday as well.

- re-open long position in IEO.

Will go long if market closes up on high vol. But I doubt that. I've never seen a window dressing/gov't intervention/whatever manipulation succeed and it's better safe than to rush on to the long side.

The rest will be updated as we go.

Shorts update 3

CHS: Covered all @ $9.15. I forgot this thing would release earnings. Covered all and waiting for the sell signal to re-emerge. 

HEW: Covered 2/3 @ $28.83. Price target hit and the position was closed automatically by the computer. This is some major support level so I'm siding with the computer here. Will re-short if a breakout to the downside occurs. 

IEO: Close long position @ $45.53 and flipped to short. I'd like to keep the reasons private since I primarily trade oil for a living. 

DBP: Cover in full @ $33.50 AVERAGE. There is NO liquidity in this POS. Stay away. 

P/L:

CHS: -$0.30/share

HEW: +$2.56/share

IEO: + $3.16/share

DBP: -$0.48/share

Shorts update 2

Keep all short positions and keep IEO long. 

Add to HEW short @ $30.15. Each failed attempt to break old highs is resulting in a deeper low. Very low risk short here. 

Initiate new short on CHS @ $8.85. Three brokers "research" upgraded this. What an excellent signal to sell!